Steel prices plummeted 2021-5-17
 
Steel prices have plummeted, and the trend of steel prices this week has been set!
 
Affected by macroeconomic policies, steel futures once fell to a limit, and the price of the spot steel market stopped rising and falling. The overall trading deviation of the spot steel market was mainly due to market panic decline. In addition, the cost-side support weakened, and there is still room for short-term decline. Steel prices have shown a downward trend this week.
 
 


One. Spot market
Construction steel: first rise and then fall
Affected by the dual impact of macroeconomic policies and futures limit-setting, spot prices continued to fall. However, due to the recent excessive pull, downstream terminals have mostly held a wait-and-see attitude. As the inventory is still gradually being digested, raw materials such as iron ore will have a certain impact on the spot price. The price of building materials may fall first and then stabilize.
 
Hot-rolled coils: rise and then fall
Affected by international funds, in the context of global inflation and the rapid increase in commodity prices, the uncertainty of iron ore prices has caused domestic steel prices to rise sharply. The willingness to ship goods is low, and it is more difficult to ship. It is expected that the hot-rolling price may fluctuate and adjust.
 
Medium and heavy plates: high in the front and then down
Futures fell limit, domestic policy regulation, market price increase sentiment was suppressed, market steel prices stopped rising and fell, downstream terminal cost pressure was too high, fear of heights eased, market trading atmosphere was positive, merchants were willing to stand up for the spot price The market price is supported to a certain extent, and the plate price is expected to fluctuate weakly tomorrow.
 
Strip steel: first strong and then weak
With the impact of carbon neutrality and other macroeconomics, the market’s expectations for production cuts have increased. In addition, market prices are still hitting new highs, and the prices of raw materials are high. This has resulted in the reduction of profits of downstream pipe plants and galvanized steel strip plants and the purchase of raw materials Under great pressure, the steel prices of downstream terminals are expected to fall first and then stabilize this week.
 
Profile: high in front and low in back
Futures have been drastically lowered, suppressing the sentiment of the spot market, the pressure on market funds is high, some projects have been suspended, and the state has taken measures to regulate the price of profiles. However, the overall situation is in the inflation stage at this stage. In addition, the situation in China and Australia is severe. The rise and fall have strong support for raw materials, and it is expected that the market price of profile materials may fall first and then rise later this week.
 
Pipe: first rise and then fall
At present, the pipe market price is chaotic and the price is over one hundred, the raw material is at a high level, and the profit margin of the merchants is narrowing. As the price continues to rise, the demand has shrunk accordingly. Prices may fluctuate weakly.
 
 
 
Second, the raw material market
Iron ore: first rise and then fall
With the tensions in Sino-Australian relations and the shortage of iron ore resources, traders are reluctant to sell at high prices. However, even the high level of iron ore has fallen. Traders are increasingly afraid of falling and are eager to sell goods. Steel companies are currently cautious in sourcing and stocks are still acceptable. Most of the manufacturers wait and see, and it is expected that iron ore prices may be stable and adjusted this week.
 
Scrap steel: callback after rising
At the beginning of the week, scrap steel rose sharply, but at the end of the week, the policy was intensively voiced. Affected by national policies, the market adjusted, and the rising trend of the steel market was affected. Iron ore, thread, etc. all began to fall. Scrap traders panicked and steel mills took advantage of the trend to lower prices. As a result, scrap prices began to fall sharply, and scrap prices are expected to continue to weaken this week.
 
Coke: rising
The seventh round of coke rise has landed, steel mills have strong demand for metallurgical coke, market resources are tight, steel mills have strong demand for coke, and coke companies have no sales and inventory pressures, and there is still support for coke prices at the superimposed raw material end. It is expected this week The market price of coke may continue to run strongly.
 
Pig iron: adjusted after rising
At present, scrap steel and finished products have fallen sharply, which has suppressed the mentality of merchants. The ore has weakened but the decline is limited. The coke is relatively stable, and the cost of pig iron is acceptable. In addition, the low inventory of various subway plants has supported iron prices. The willingness to cut prices is not high, and pig iron prices are expected to stabilize this week.
 
 
 
Three, there are several influencing factors
1. China Shipbuilding Association and China Iron and Steel Association exchanged views on the current steel and ship market status and future trends
The two parties exchanged views on the current steel and ship market status and future trends, the current shipboard procurement model, and the connection between upstream and downstream supply and demand, and conducted in-depth discussions on how to strengthen cooperation in upstream and downstream industries to promote mutual benefit, win-win results, and sustainable and healthy development. .
 
2. In early May, the daily average crude steel output of key steel enterprises hit a new high
According to the China Iron and Steel Association data, in early May 2021, the daily average crude steel output of key steel companies was 2.4178 million tons, rising for four consecutive days, setting a new record high; a month-on-month increase of 18,000 tons, an increase of 0.75%, and a year-on-year increase of 17.84%. As of the end of the first ten days of May, the steel inventory of key enterprises was 14.683 million tons, an increase of 1.27 million tons or 9.47% over the previous ten days.
 
3. China Automobile Association: The output of auto companies in early May decreased by 11.9% year-on-year
According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in early May this year, the output of 11 key car companies was 369,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%. Among them, the output of passenger vehicles was 299,000, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%; the output of commercial vehicles was 70,000, a year-on-year decrease of 30.2%.
 
 

Four, comprehensive view
After the sharp rise in steel prices, most merchants made more speculative profit margins, downstream fears continued, and demand was more cautious, and then futures fell broadly. The market was more panicked about the decline. Most of the goods were sold mainly, and the market steel prices were chaotic. It is expected that steel prices this week may fall first and then stabilize.